Sunday, November 30, 2008

Updated: Coalition Watch- Weekend Update

Being as there have been so many developments in the past thirty-six hours, I didn't figure I'd make you wait until Monday to let you know what all has been going on.

The question as to how Prime Minister Harper plans to put off the vote of non-confidence that was due Monday is to move the planned Opposition day a full week until the following Monday, December the 8th. No word as to just what Parliamentarians will be doing the whole week - according to NDP House Leader Libby Davies, the Commons calendar had been geared around debating what was to have been the new Bill C-2, which would have implemented the measures in the Fiscal Update. Well, that's not going to happen, and it looks like Monday's projected order of business is more debate on the Fiscal Update itself. Do they plan to keep that up for the full week?

In an attempt to look conciliatory, the government has since dropped the plans to eliminate the party financing subsidies as well as the provisions that would have made it illegal for public servants to strike for the next two years. Is that going to be enough to soothe the savage opposition? Not hardly. They also promised to deliver an actual budget early - January 27th, in fact. The day after the House returns from the December break. Is that enough? Probably not either, since no one liked anything that was in the fiscal update, and the means in which Flaherty was trying to cover up a deficit in it.

Coalition talks are proceeding, and the question of who will lead it still looks to be like it'll end up being Stéphane Dion. On CTV's Question Period this morning, Jane Taber tried to get all of her guests to somehow say they had a problem with this, but Michael Ignatieff, Scott Brison nor even the NDP's Paul Dewar would bite. They kept saying "Dion is the leader," and left it at that. Does this mean that we could see Prime Minister Dion after the December 8th confidence vote?  At least until the leadership convention in May? That is looking like a distinct possibility at this point.

Jack Layton is already taking credit for the coalition, by admitting to his caucus a secret deal with the Bloc even before the fiscal update was delivered. But then, he takes credit for everything, so I'd be curious to see the other side of the tale.

But don't expect the Conservatives to be taking this lying down. They're trying to mobilise their grassroots base, first by asking them for "emergency donations" in case they need to fight an election, but also by giving them talking points to call into radio call-in shows with. The Montreal Gazette's Elizabeth Thompson plugged in her postal code into their talking points generator, and posted the results here. Of course, they make a coalition government sound like it's a coup d'etat, when in fact Harper himself broached the possibility with then-Governor General Adrienne Clarkson. 

As for Her Excellency, she's keeping an eye on the situation while on her State visit to Eastern Europe, ready to return home at a moment's notice in the even a crisis does erupt. Suffice to say, it looks like it's going to be quite a week in Parliament. 

Update: Transcript from the "secret deal" tapes can be found here

Update the Second: Thunderbirds are go


Friday, November 28, 2008

Updated: Coalition Watch

The outrage and sniping over yesterday's Fiscal Update continued into the House this morning. While opposition members decried an attack on democracy, government backbenchers used their Members' Statements today to praise the government for its "prudence," while accusing the "greedy" and "corrupt" opposition of simply trying to "defend their entitlements." Oh yeah - it was going to be one of those days.

In fact, that's the theme that carried through Question Period - a question would be asked about everything that the Fiscal Update lacked (stimulus, credible numbers, rights for women or workers), the Parliamentary Secretary for the file would stand up and ignore the question and praise the government's previous stimulus measures (also known as the GST cut that every credible economist in this country denounced), and said that the opposition only really wanted to talk about their entitlements. As though the agreed upon means of taking party financing out of hands of corporate and union donations was some kind of perk.

Other things I noted from Question Period:

-Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez got a haircut, and the boy is looking fine.

-Don't piss off Maria Minna when it comes to status of women. She not only gave an impassioned question, but in her supplemental demanded that the Minister of State for status of women answer the question, when the government kept putting up the President of the Treasury Board (Vic Toews, for the record) to speak. They ignored that demand.

-Scott Brison rose to ask about Fiscal Update, reviving his epithet for Flaherty as Canada's "Deficit Daddy," taking taking the fatherhood allusions that much further while bringing up the way that Flaherty used the future sale of unnamed government assets in his calculations, and recalled his role in the fiasco of Highway 407 in Ontario.

-Mario Silva was up a little later to point out that while one in seven women lives in poverty, the Fiscal Update did nothing for lost jobs or EI. The Parliamentary Secretary for Human Resources and Skills Development responded by talking about the federal homelessness strategy.

While these attacks went on, the back room dealing is getting more interesting.  The Canadian Press reported that former giants Ed Broadbent and Jean Chrétien were trying to negotiate a possible coalition deal if the government were to fall over this fiscal update. And while they're now reporting that Harper has apparently "blinked" and isn't going to include the measures about ending the party subsidies in the Update legislation, the opposition still says no deal, as the update still has nothing about economic stimulus or job creation.  Or perhaps they haven't blinked, and are going ahead with it after all.  There's information flying from all quarters right now, it's hard to tell which is right (though I do tend to trust CP's record).

Stay tuned - things have definitely started to heat up.

Update: Hot off the Canadian Press wire, via Maclean's - The Liberals plan on moving a motion of non-confidence on Monday, and talks are in progress right now between all three opposition parties to propose a governing coalition, with word coming that they have agreed to let Stéphane Dion head it for the first few months. Harper could still stall, and Her Excellency is out of the country on a state tour of Europe at the moment, but she could be recalled shortly to deal with the upcoming crisis in Parliament.

Updated Again: Harper just addressed the media, and said that any attempt to form a coalition would be illegitimate because the voters explicitly rejection Dion. Um, last I checked, this was Canada and we don't vote for a Prime Minister directly. He also says there won't be a confidence vote until the 8th, but if Monday is still an Opposition Day, and if the Liberals move their own non-confidence motion on such a day, then it won't matter that Harper has delayed voting on his confidence legislation. (On Politics, Libby Davies seemed uncertain how Harper could manage such a delay). Expect Harper to try and mobilise voters to reject a coalition government by direct mail-outs, blogs, and so on.


Friday, November 28, 2008

The Fiscal Update - Let's cripple the opposition!

I showed up on the Hill about fifteen minutes before Question Period was due to start, and promptly got lost trying to find my way into the Press Gallery. Hey, it was my first time being up there unescorted, and it wasn't my fault that it didn't say "Press Gallery" on the correct door!

The latter part of the Members' Statements saw several statements of condemnation and consolation for the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, first with Conservative Nina Grewal, followed by a Bloc MP whose name I didn't catch (it's different watching it live, when you don't have CPAC subtitling the names and riding names), then Liberal Navdeep Bains, and finally Deepak Obhrai, the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs. All of them received a standing ovation.

Question Period got started with a rare moment of civility when Stéphane Dion asked about what the government was doing regarding said attacks in Mumbai. But then it went off back to questions of the economy, and addressing the rumours about just what was coming up in the Fiscal Update. Questions for which the answer was usually "wait until it gets delivered at four."

Bill Siksay did get up and ask a question regarding the election of directors to the Canadian Wheat Board. It seems that some Conservative MPs have allegedly been using their influence as public office holders to try and get candidates they favour elected. Wait, since when is Siksay a critic for agriculture? He's not - but he is a critic for ethics, and this issue is unethical, and it sounds like it's going to be under investigation by the Ethics Commissioner. And even though he asked the Government House Leader whether the member alleged to have been involved in such matters would be suspended pending the examination of the Ethics Commissioner, the Parliamentary Secretary for the Minister of Agriculture stood up, skirted the issue, and gave the usual disingenuous Conservative talking points about the Wheat Board. But then again, we've come to expect nothing less. 

About forty-five minutes after Question Period came the Fiscal Update (by which time I had left the Hill as I had deadlines to meet) - and it wasn't pretty. Despite two weeks of deficit talk, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty claimed that we would see balanced budgets over the next five years - but apparently promised that based on rather optimistic growth figures and included numbers Scott Brison later termed as "dishonest," listing revenues from the sale of government assets - assets which have not yet been named or even sold yet. But it got better.

On top of such "belt-tightening" measures such as capping public service salary increases (and removing their right to strike until 2010), he also said that as of April 1st, the government will end the public subsidy of political parties. You know, the $1.95 that each party gets per year for every vote they got in the last general election? Yeah, he wants to take that away.

Cue the opposition outrage.

While it's true the Conservatives would lose the most funding - some $10 million per year, it only accounts for 37% of their overall funding. Contrast that to $7.7 million for the Liberals (at 63% of their funding), $4.9 million for the NDP (at 57%), $2.6 million for the Bloc (at 60%) and $1.8 million for the Greens (at 65%). In other words, this measure could cripple the opposition parties.

Some opposition members called this an attack on democracy. Liberal MP Martha Hall Findlay said that it was an attempt by the government to change the channel on their poor economic performance, especially in an update that contained no economic stimulus measures. But what is clear is that all opposition parties are going to oppose it.

So what does that mean? Well, the government will put forward a Ways and Means motion either tomorrow or Monday (which is a confidence measure), and if that passes, a bill containing these fiscal measures will be tabled (also a confidence matter). And if it gets defeated, which looks likely, then the government will fall. If the opposition parties can cobble together a workable coalition (for which the talk is now that they're in negotiation), then they could be invited to form a government. And if that fails?

Then my friends, we'll be back on the campaign trail.


Thursday, November 27, 2008

Where have all the gay MPs gone?

Last evening, I was invited to a Wonderful Wednesday being hosted by the fledgling Fierté Liberal Pride network (whom you'll be hearing more about in the near future). And it while a fun time was had by all, none of the gay MPs showed up.

That's not to say that there wasn't a good turnout. Early in the evening, a bunch of MPs showed up, including Carolyn Bennett, Siobhan Coady, Anita Neville, and Mike Savage. Rounding out the first wave were Senator Art Eggleton, and former MPs Don Boudria and Sheila Copps. Hedy Fry's assistant made her apologies, saying that Hedy had House Duty and was thus in the Commons and unable to attend. But where were Scott Brison, Mario Silva or Rob Oliphant? I couldn't a clear answer to those questions.

Bob Rae turned up, and while talking to me, has promised Xtra a full-frontal centrefold spread - to complement his now infamous Rick Mercer exploit. I didn't even have to ask - he volunteered! Rae talked about how much he's learned from his Toronto Centre constituents, and on a more serious note, he's looking forward to sitting down with me in the near future to talk about GLBT issues in the context of his bid for party leadership. I'm going to hold him to that promise.

When the president of Fierté Liberal Pride, Bryn Hendricks, took the microphone to thank everyone for showing up, he spoke about the importance for Liberals to reclaim the GLBT vote, pointing out that in the 2004 election, lesbians disproportionately voted NDP. When he passed the microphone to Sheila Copps (whose birthday it happens to be today, so here's a shout out to you), she spoke about how the Liberals not highlighting their accomplishments when it comes to GLBT issues, they're not doing themselves any favours. Copps was also instrumental in helping Hendricks get the organisation off its feet, and they are now looking to set up chapters in every riding across the country.

While most of the MPs took off early for other engagements (a full social calendar has been compressed into four weeks, and there is a fall economic update tomorrow that rumour has it could spell doom for the Liberal party), a few turned up later in the evening, including Martha Hall Findlay and Gerard Kennedy. But if there was one image that stuck with me as I left, it was that the characterisation of a "velvet mafia" operating on the Hill with all those gay and lesbian staffers can't be too far from the truth.

(Oh, and Suite 34, the venue for the evening's festivities - a big thumbs down for running out of red wine. Seriously? You may have had hot boys behind the bar, but your shocking lapse in judgement when it comes to stocking your bar leaves much to be desired).


Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Hey, stop badmouthing Canada!

Tuesday's Question Period saw the end of this new era of civility and decorum in the House.  Who had Tuesday in the pool?  Anyone?

It's funny how logic apparently works in the mind of the Honourable Minister of Finance. One day he's inviting the opposition to bring forward suggestions as to how to get Canada through this economic crisis (now known as a "technical recession"), and the next he's hitting them around the metaphorical face and neck. You see, apparently asking for accountability from the government on their fiscal policies after it has been concluded by the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer that it was said policies and not the global economic slowdown that pushed us into a deficit, is now "badmouthing Canada." Really? Because I don't recall the trash talk being about Canada - just you and your policies.

Scott Brison was up once again for the Liberals for the second question of the day, and when he used his supplementary question to point out the apparent Conservative penchant for luxury travel, Flaherty accused him of having read that report while flying out to his riding in Business Class. Oh no he didn't! But Brison wasn't having any of that. At the end of Question Period, he rose on a point of order, travel itinerary in hand, looking to table it to show that he actually flew Economy. From Hansard:

Mr. Speaker, during question period the Minister of Finance referred to my flight to my riding last Friday. As he said that I was in business class, I would like to table my economy class plane ticket to Halifax last Friday, and perhaps the minister could table his last economy class ticket as well.

Later on in Question Period, it was Hedy Fry versus new Conservative cabinet minister Lisa Raitt on a question of the forestry industry. It wasn't really a fair fight, though. Hedy, honorary drag queen that she is, was resplendent in her ensemble, while Raitt, who may be tall and blonde, was wearing a rather boxy jacket that did her no favours, giving a rather wooden performance. We'll give her some time to perfect her performance, but really - if you want to deliver talking points, you need to say them like you actually believe them. Not just recite them from your briefing binder.

And Brison? He wasn't done with Flaherty yet. In the scrum in the foyer after Question Period was over, this exchange was recorded:

Reporter: It looks like they’re going to announce some kind of a restraint or cutbacks on compensation for senior bureaucrats and members of parliament, politicians.  Can you think of something you could give up right now that would help in that?
Scott Brison: The Minister of Finance, clearly. I think the entire country could get along without Jim Flaherty.

I believe the words you're looking for are "oh, snap!"


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